Quality tour de force there TJ... and my own 40.88 cents (2 cent equivalent from 1947 when I appeared on Earth, CPI w/o lies corrected) best guess:
- The ups & downs (appeasement & suppression) and inflation/deflation cycle boogie will continue increasing in amplitude and/or frequency until, as Jesse puts it so well, "The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustained recovery."
- Per my work, world wide we're still barely in inflation mode (total money as in 'M3+credit+gov't debt less double counting' in the US is about +2% YoY), and only even at best once velocity is taken into account.
- It hasn't gotten bad enough yet for major QE anywhere yet, except for Britain which just turned some on last week. The rest will likely follow by 2012 1Q, best guess most by mid/late November (my next major turn point).
- Lost decade indeed, although my internet giddyup time based estimate is more in the 3-8 year period... and probably we have differing semantics on "sordid" since I'm looking more at when minor but real hope will be visible. Close enough to your estimate for horseshoes.
- Terrifying and then some - degradation, damning, debt deflation, death, disgusting dickheads... burn baby burn ala the '60s rhymes.... wonderful world of ObiWar too.
By the way, if anyone wonders why that fear/calm chart is still in greed mode - the inputs are from US markets only, lots of ostriches present.
"...throughout recorded time...there have been three kinds of people in the world, the High, the Middle, and the Low...The aims of these three groups are entirely irreconcilable. The aim of the High is to remain where they are. The aim of the Middle is to change places with the High. The aim of the Low, when they have an aim -- for it is an abiding characteristic of the Low that they are too much crushed by drudgery to be more than intermittently conscious of anything outside their daily lives -- is to abolish all distinctions and create a society in which all men shall be equal.
Thus throughout history a struggle which is the same in its main outlines recurs over and over again. For long periods the High seem to be securely in power, but sooner or later there always comes a moment when they lose either their belief in themselves or their capacity to govern efficiently, or both. They are then overthrown by the Middle, who enlist the Low on their side by pretending to them that they are fighting for liberty and justice. As soon as they have reached their objective, the Middle thrust the Low back into their old position of servitude, and themselves become the High. Presently a new Middle group splits off from one of the other groups, or from both of them, and the struggle begins over again. Of the three groups, only the Low are never even temporarily successful in achieving their aims.
But the problems of perpetuating a hierarchical society go deeper than this. There are only four ways in which a ruling group can fall from power. Either it is conquered from without, or it governs so inefficiently that the masses are stirred to revolt, or it allows a strong and discontented Middle group to come into being, or it loses its own self-confidence and willingness to govern."
-- 1984, George Orwell
(I vote all of the above on the four) |
