This is divergent... yet all confidence is low to down... one note ... apparently (like with taxes) the top tier is doing most buying....
Economic Report
Oct. 14, 2011, 8:44 a.m. EDT
U.S. retail sales jump 1.1% in September Biggest increase in seven months as auto purchases lead way
By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Higher purchases of autos, clothing and home furnishings in September fueled the biggest increase in U.S. retail sales in seven months, government data showed Friday.
The springback in consumer spending is the latest evidence to suggest the U.S. economy is not falling back into recession. Consumer spending accounts for as much as 70% of economic growth.
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Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 1.1% last month, the Commerce Department said.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected an increase of 0.8%.
The increase in retail sales was boosted by demand for autos, which bounced back after a weak August performance. Auto sales spiked 3.6% last month — the biggest increase in a year-and-a half — as carmakers sold nearly 1.1 million vehicles.
Excluding the auto sector, sales rose 0.6%, but that was still higher than market expectations of a 0.4% increase. Auto sales can swing sharply from month to month and mask underlying retail trends.
Sales for August, which were originally reported as unchanged, were revised up to a 0.3% increase.
Consumers also spent heavily last month on clothing as children went back to school and stores switched over to fall and winter clothing. Apparel sales rose 1.3%, the largest increase in seven months.
Sales of home furnishings were also strong, up 1.1%.
Consumers also spent more at gasoline stations, bars and restaurants. Gasoline stations saw an 1.2% increase in spending while food and drinking places posted a 1.2% increase in retail sales.
The willingness of consumers to spend is a critical bulwark against a potential recession. As long as spending continues at a measured pace, the U.S. economy will continue to grow and another downturn will be avoided.
Overall retail sales are 7.9% higher compared to one year ago, and they have increased 8% in the past three months.
Among the few sectors to miss out on September’s growth were groceries, liquor stores and retailers that sell books, music and sporting goods.
Sales data is collected from polls sent to up to 5,000 firms that account for two-third of all U.S. retail purchases.
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