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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread
VTI 335.99-1.1%Dec 12 4:00 PM EST
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To: marc ultra who wrote (6504)10/16/2011 5:57:17 PM
From: marc ultra2 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) of 10065
 
Lakshman and Bob in the Thunderdome. 2 men enter, one man leaves.

While technically there may be wiggle room because they're not defining a recession in exactly the same way, the battle lines are now clearly drawn, one will be correct and one will be wrong. Today Bob flat out said the ECRI ("the private forecaster out of NY") will be wrong and those (like me) who have acted on their call will regret if. It's possible Bob might even be using me as as part of his example since when he was using an alias he would respond to me at various times (including praise at times), so if he glances at this board occasionally he is aware that I have flipped from bull to bear due to the ECRI call but obviously a lot of people have made investment changes based on the CRI so the possible personal point would not be that relevant regardless.

For those into it this is epic stuff. Will the ECRI when it comes to market action end up like an Elaine Garzarelli making a disastrous reputation destroying sell call while Bob is on a flat out buy call? Will the ECRI's flawless record for the last 15 years finally come to an end downgrading them to just another fallible view sitting in the trash heap of history of forecasters?

They didn't just say there could be a recession, they were adamant that a recession couldn't be stopped and things will get far worse. Lakshman did the full media tour after they released their call to the public and had that air of complete certainty and put full reputational capital into this call.

It won't make that much difference to Bob or others doubting the call because no market timers or other economic forecasters have been perfect and institutions are not paying in the 6 figures for Bob's opinions as they are for subscriptions to the ECRI data and opinions.

I still have to think the ECRI will prove right but it's certainly true my responding to the ECRI call has already been very costly.

So I will be following this with extreme personal interest and my money for now is still on the ECRI but yes, I'm nervous about the possibility this could be a spectacular failure by the eCRI and I'm now in the uncomfortable position of finding myself rooting for a bad economy and bear market now that I'm committed that way.
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