The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread

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Dec 8 4:00 PM EST

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To: joefromspringfield who wrote (6518)	10/18/2011 5:33:03 PM
From: marc ultra	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) of 10065

<Yes Roubini has been a perma bear. Brinker has been a perma bull since 2003. Both are an example that even a stopped clock is correct twice a day. That's an idiotic bogus analogy. Bob went bearish near the 2000 highs and went bullish right at the 2003 retest low at S&P 800 riding it up for a double. He was bullish through most all of the 1990's and right on the retest correction lows in 1998 we went to a screaming buy followed which the market exploded higher pretty much straight up to the 2000 highs. Prior to that he made outstanding calls such as getting into certain emerging market funds that soared higher etc. His views on the economy and interest rates have been excellent for the most part and he's a market person, not an economist. The way his model is designed is excellent for calling market turns under the most common circumstances where high valuations, overly bullish sentiment and economic growth that is reaching the kind of strength where the possibility of inflation/inflationary expectations and/or the Fed is likely to cause an end to a bull and vice versa for a new bull call. I don't think its design as I understand it is going to do a good a job if we are already in a weak market and economy that is then hit by a further sharp downturn. that's what we had in 2008 and if the ECRI is correct we will have something like that again though the magnitude of the recession and bear is likely to be very different. I believe Bob and the ECRI's calls are pretty much in direct conflict. We will see who comes out right. I've bet on the ECRI but I wouldn't be shocked if Bob is right and we could end up in something hazy since one is calling the economy and the other is calling the market and their definitions of a recession don't match. I'm assuming that if the ECRI call is correct, a bear market is a certainty but if the recession is quite shallow I imagine that doesn't have to be the case.

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