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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Sergio H who wrote (45028)	10/18/2011 6:20:20 PM
From: J Mako	Read Replies (1) of 78665

re: GLW and China While I'm bullish on GLW, I do have a contrarian-contrarian thought on GLW's medium-term prospect. Research houses forecast demand of LCD panels will be flat in 2012. The slow down in western countries will be picked up by the growth in Asian countries. Apparently, the biggest factor here is China. GLW voted with its wallet by building factories in China. Can we count on growing consumption in China? China's recent growth has been fueled by MASSIVE investment which has caused HUGE capital misallocation. Can China shifts from an investment-driven economy to a consumption economy? That requires increasing their wage level, which in turn requires a bet-the-country correction to their capital misallocation. Will that happen? As we now know, Japan tried but got into its lost decade. I don't have further insight. But I can point you to this excellent article: iifunds.com.au

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