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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD
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To: kidl who wrote (205416)10/23/2011 12:54:31 PM
From: Canuck Dave  Read Replies (3) of 312342
 
"At least two out of every three mutual funds underperform the overall market in any given year."

I'm surprised it's that high, LOL. I thought they were pretty much all dogs. Reading this article, it's made me want to answer the question "Is what we do luck?"

I keep monthly tabs on my net worth. If I do it on a yearly basis, would it be fair to compare the yearly gains and losses to say, the Dow, in order to determine if I have any "skill"?

This is going to be geeky fun. I'll post the numbers. I think Loneclone is a stats man. I'm pretty sure he can compute 95% confidence levels.

Perhaps more germanely, the article underscores the trader's mantra "Cut your losers short, let your winners run" as the key to long term succes. Where to cut them off (I use 10%) and where to let them run to (I look for the tape to turn) is the trick.

CD
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