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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD

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To: kidl who wrote (205416)10/23/2011 2:24:21 PM
From: Canuck Dave   of 312346
 
"It's not Luck, Charles" - Louis H. Winthorp III to rival suitor in "Trading Places".

Ok... I've got the numbers...

Starting December 31 1998, and computing yearly gains for the Dow and myself...

Year Dow gain(%) me(%)
----- ----- ----- -----

1998 9200 ----- -----
1999 11500 25 884
2000 10900 -5 15.0
2001 10200 -6.5 8.8
2002 8500 -16.7 43.3
2003 10200 20. 18.5 (*)
2004 10600 3.9 -9.3 (*)
2005 10800 2.0 -5.2 (*)
2006 12500 15.7 31.2
2007 13000 4.0 9.7
2008 9000 -30.1 -24.4
2009 10000 11.1 18.9
2010 11100 11.1 26.7

(*) denotes years I underperformed the Dow. So... 8 out of 11 years, I did better, and the average gains 2000-2010 (excluding 1999 for obvious reasons)...

Dow -.26%, me about 20% (I probably need to recompute with averages rather than dividing 2010 net by 2000).

I'd call that skill. I do a lot better when markets are good and never vastly underperformed. We will probably never see another year like 1999 again (!).

CD
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