Here's a comparison of Advance, 2nd, and Final reports over time. Notice that with all the revisions going on, the BEA's final revised numbers are almost always lower than the preliminary numbers. The revision from 2006 to 2009 revised almost every number down, sometimes dramatically. This is all a really big joke. Bottom line is the government posts advance estimates based on what they want to sell to the unwitting public. Then they quietly revise everything to be more accurate later on, when no one is noticing. Good thing the Internet enables us to see all of these shenanigans and expose them for what they are. Also, it's a good thing we have groups like ECRI, which track the leading economic indicators that help us see what's coming a little in advance. Ignore them at your own peril.
useconomy.about.com
Oct 12 2011
GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, is updated each month by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). It releases the GDP growth report, which describes how fast the economy grew in the last quarter. To understand the government's GDP reports as they are released, it is helpful to see how much they change with each release. Here is an archive of blog posts for each GDP release since the fourth quarter of 2006. Note: On July 29, 2011, the BEA revised all GDP stats from 2006 on. This is in addition to the July 31, 2009, revision of all stats since 1929. The revised figures are given next to each quarter's title, followed by earlier estimates in parentheses. Links are given to each original report for comparison. Sorry it's a little confusing, but it's important to see how the data is changed. These changes aren't easily available anywhere else.
Each quarterly GDP report gets three releases:
Advance Report: Comes out one month after the quarter ends. This can often be wildly different from the final report, simply because all of the trade and business inventory data is not in yet.
Second Report: Comes out two months after the end of the quarter. This is usually pretty realistic. Formerly called the Preliminary Report.
Third Report: Comes out three months after the end of the quarter. Usually only tweaks the Second Report. Formerly known as Final Report.
Q2 2011 GDP: 1.0%
Advance Report - Growth was only 1.3%, thanks to a delay in parts from Japan, a result of the March tsunami.
Second Report - The BEA revised its estimate down for the second quarter to 1%.
Final Report - Whoops! Looks like GDP was 1.3% after all.
Q1 2011 GDP: .4% (1.9%)
Advance Report - The economy grew 1.8%, dragged down by a drop in government spending.
Second Report - BEA kept the estimate at 1.8% growth.
Final Report - The final BEA estimate was bumped up a bit to 1.9%.
2010 GDP for the Year: 3.0% (2.8%)
Q4 2010 GDP: 2.3% (2.8%)
Advance Report - The economy grew 3.2%, dragged down by a slow housing market.
Second Report - The BEA's second estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter 2010 dropped to 2.8%, thanks to housing's shadow inventory.
Final Report - The final estimate was 3.1%, thanks to consumer spending.
Q3 2010 GDP: 2.5% (2.6%)
Advance Report - The economy only grew 2%, prompting additional Fed easing.
Second Report - Growth was revised up to 2.5%, due businesses increasing their inventory levels.
Final Report - The economy grew 2.6%, better than last quarter but still not enough to create a lot of jobs.
Q2 2010 GDP: 3.8% (1.7%)
Advance Report - Businesses buying durable goods drove 2.4% economic growth.
Second Report - Growth was revised down to 1.6%, due to less inventory replenishment than the BEA originally thought.
Final Report - Economy chugs along at a 1.7% growth rate, driven by business spending on equipment and computers.
Q1 2010 GDP: 3.9% (3.7%)
Advance Report - The economy grew 3.2% because Americans are shopping again.
Second Report - Economic growth was revised down to 3% thanks to new data showing higher exports.
Final Report - Turns out the economy grew 2.7% in Q1.
2009 GDP for the Year: -3.5% (-2.9%, -2.4%)
Q4 2009 GDP: 3.8% (5%, 5.6%)
Advance Report - The economy grew 5.7%, but half of that growth was based on businesses re-stocking low inventory.
Second Report - Economic growth was revised up to 5.9%, but businesses re-stocking low inventory drove 4 points of that growth.
Third Report - The report said 5.6% growth, but after taking out restocking of low inventory, the real number was 1.8%.
Q3 2009 GDP: 1.6% (Was 2.2%)
Advance Report - The economy grew 3.5%, which meant that technically the recession was over.
Second Report - Growth was revised down to 2.8%.
Third Report - Growth was revised down to 2.2%.
Q2 2009 GDP: -.7% (No revision)
Advance Report - Government spending propped up the economy, which contracted 1%.
Second Report - In a very unusual move, the BEA did not adjust its estimate, which remained at -1%.
Third Report - The economy declined .7% in Q2 2009.
Q1 2009 GDP: -6.7% (-4.9%, -6.4%)
Advance Report: - The economy fell 6.1%, partly due to leaner inventories.
Second Report: - The economy contracted 5.7% in Q1 2009, according to revised figures in the preliminary GDP report.
Final Report: - Growth was down 5.5%. The economy contracted more than 5% for two quarters in a row, the first time since the Great Depression. |
