>> dan, I posted cpq's exact sales in each of the countries
>> in fareast...
Its not only the past I am concerned with, but the future. And its not all about box sales either. I am not saying that the sky is falling yet, and indeed interventions may repair things before they get out of hand, but people have a tendency to blow off every negative event as meaningless in this raging bull market. The Asia crises is a potential nuke. Closing your eyes and clicking your ruby heels together three times will not make it go away.
Frankly, the single worst thing about a long running bull market like the one we have enjoyed is that it makes anyone who has made a few bucks think they are geniuses. I am not a bear by nature, but for goodness sakes why is it that people are so willing to shrug off such weighty news as if it contained no meaning for them whatsoever?
As far as your close and personal friend Pfeifer goes, I am sure he is a fine man, and CPQ profits may suffer not at all from the Asia effect. That remains to be seen. But spin control is in his job description. Frankly, whether you choose to admit it or not, Asia has already affected CPQs share price in recent weeks. And please, I don't need for you to repeat your bio for me, I know you owned CPQ while I was still in diapers and blah, blah, blah, but my CPQ shares took a hit. I did not get in when you did. I am not happy about it. I unloaded them as fast as I could to retain some shred of my profits and to get back in at a lower price. CPQ will not be affected? Sales maybe or maybe not, but that's not the whole picture. Sure CPQ will be higher in 5 years, so will DELL, IBM, INTC, KO, MSFT, F, T, Robert Downey Jr, my blood pressure, my phone bills and my lawn. But will the next 5 be exactly like the last 5? I really, really doubt it.
I get a little irritated reading naive posts from people who can dismiss very real threats and encourage people to not to seriously consider the potential repercussions. My worst investment decisions have occurred because I allowed myself to be lulled into downplaying very real problems by persuasive idiots. Not that you are an idiot, I am just making a point.
DM |
