QUANTUM Message Board - Msg: 2773782

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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM

QNTM 8.720

-7.0%

Dec 24 12:58 PM EST

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To: Rob S. who wrote (5337)	11/20/1997 1:34:00 AM
From: semi engineer	Read Replies (2) of 9124

Rob S No matter how you cut it. This over capacity in DD in will impact QNTM negative way. Most of the thread are stating that QNTM is cheap not but the stock crossed $27 in July. The stock was trading below $20 most of first half 97. With the market confirming that there is overcapacity, it will be tough for all DD(including QNTM) for many quarters. I understand that KMAG is actually going to disassemble two of eight automatic production line to reduce the capacity. If Komag is doing this, this must be happening to everyone in the DD business. Komag would not have added all this capacity on their own. It had to come from forecast from various disk drive makers(Fujitsu,WDC,SEG and QNTM). It it probably very similar to what happened to DRAM, PC. etc before. All 10 companies wanted 20% of the market. It is very possible that QNTM is that rare exception that defy the market but market is rarely wrong. Just take a look at CYMI,KLIC and TER. They are at a leader at their respective field but they are down 50% of it high even though they continue to beat their earning estimates. QNTM with DLT will slow the fall but I believe the bottom has not been reached yet. I did not meant to frighten all you bulls but just review the probability. AMAT went down 40% because of fear of slow down(not confirmed). DD went to 50% because the slow down is confirmed. Where do you think QNTM should be priced in this market condition? I only have a small quantity of QNTM put. Most of my puts are DELL. Good luck to all. Hope noone declares bankruptcy soon.

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