Frank, I don't see IBM buying NOVL, and this is why:
1. The NOVL suite of products are intel-based. IBM has a very large investment in Power technology (their RISC chips in the RS6000 & AS400), as well as their mainframes. So, NOVL doesn't have software that will run on their most profitable lines of hardware.
2. IBM won't throw the necessary R&D at the software to port it to RISC architectures. HWP/NOVL did, and it isn't selling. It is also a dog. I know, I installed it at some enduser trials.
3. On a performance scale, Netware & OS/2 Lan server are about the same. Furthermore NT runs on some IBM RS/6000 systems. IBM has competitive products that are almost as good, and better in some areas.
4. NOVL's other product, their GroupW. is also married to x86 technology. IBM has other products which will run on their entire product family.
5. The market is moving away from NOS, and to other technologies such as WebNFS, NC (networked computers -- check out IBM's announcement), and larger non-intel file/application servers. Netware's days are numbered.
6. Novel's internet/intranet software doesn't help IBM --- IBM is bundling Netscape's server software FREE with every copy of AIX that goes out the door.
7. Biggest reason, IBM would have to explain to their stockholders why they see a value in NOVL, that wall street doesn't.
Personally, I think ANY buyout of NOVL is nothing more than wishful thinking on the part of stockholders that won't look at this company objectively. Ask yourself, "Am I glad I own this company?"
- David |
