Ure's take on Iran-a-scam4.0 **
11-3-11
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Iran War Notebook
What does the world need about now? What with MF Global going down and a lot of embarrassing questions about how segregated funds became part of a gambling pool while regulators were out to lunch (putting it politely as I can) the need for a decent-sized war has almost never been greater, other than the late summer of 2001 when the whole world was about to see a global depression in the wake of the internet bubble bursting and trillions in retirement accounts trashed.
We're there again now, maybe.
So we begin our coverage with a suggestion to read up on how the "UK military steps up plans for Iran attack amid fresh nuclear fears" which pumps up the idea that Iran already has nukes and might be inclined to use them.
One of our trusted sources on military matters has been sharing some first-class thinking on this overs the past few days:
The above article dovetails neatly with what I'm hearing. We have not seen a military operation telegraphed quite like this since "Operation Desert Storm" (2 August 1990 - 28 February 1991). Here are several theories as to why:
- Like Op. Desert Storm, the U.S. (and by default, Israel) needs to build a solid coalition of support for any action taken against Iran. Building such a coalition covertly is impossible in today's media saturated world, and doing so requires public support. Controlled telegraphing of information by concerned parties helps to raise public awareness. In the U.S., this facilitates quicker congressional approval of the commitment of U.S. forces.
- If the U.S. and the U.K. do openly ally with Israel, no Islamic nation would ever 'officially' join the coalition. This prospect leaves out two regional power houses . . . Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and risks alienating Syria and possibly Egypt. However, Turkey and the Saudis may well have already agreed to tacitly 'stand by,' complaining a bit from the sidelines but taking no discernable military actions. By agreeing to do so, they will no doubt gain regional influence.
- The 'telegraphing' may simply be a measured psyops, pointed deterrence, a 'warning shot across the bow' to Iranian theocrats, politicos and key businessmen that if they continue along their current path, action will be taken.
Wild cards in all of this are China and Russia, both heavily invested in Iranian military and nuclear endeavors. Will they stand-by, or visibly ally themselves with the ancient Persians so as to maintain a viable 'presence' in the Persian Gulf?
During the Cold War stand-off between the Soviet Warsaw Pact and U.S. led NATO, strategy and policy geeks (like me) called the super power situation a 'bi-polar' world. Today, that term has a double entendre -- and many would term it a 'bi-polar disorder.' After the Soviet Union collapsed upon itself, the U.S. was left as the lone military super power in a 'mono-polar' world. The U.S. economy and military have since waned, and Russia and China, among others, may plan to 'fill the void.'
The Persian Gulf developments noticeably harkens back to Cold War regional proxy wars, with those same decided risks of military escalation. The problem being, all the veteran Cold War diplomats and military strategists from both sides are either long gone or flatly ignored. Without their acumen and discretion, things could quickly spiral into unanticipated territory.
It goes without saying -- this situation 'bears' watching!
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This JPost article seems to be mostly bluff:
I would not expect Israeli censors to permit even idle speculation about any ensuing attack against Iran. So the above article may well be part of a concerted propaganda effort either trying to prevent war or pave the way leading up to it.
Breaking item: Israeli security is looking into recent Iran sneak attack leaks.
Israeli diesel-electric subs, special forces and probably stealth drones and aircraft would likely comprise the leading edge of any Jewish first strike, not the massive waves of conventional aircraft the JPost article presupposes.
Bunker-buster bombs are pretty much a given in this operation -- either the 100+ 500-pound GBU-28s already shipped to Israel or, if the U.S. of A. gets involved overtly or covertly, the Massive Ordinance Penetrator , which is able to penetrate in excess of 100' of bedrock and packs a sizeable whollop.
As discussed in a past rendition of this exercise, one cannot rule out either Israel or the U.S. employing small yield Earth penetrating nukes in conjunction with the MoP or GBU-28. Detonation of these devices in sequence well below the surface would shatter underground facilities due to the bedrock earthquake 'wave' effect. The earth world contain the bulk of produced radioactive gasses and fallout from a small yield nuke. Any residual radioactivity that might be detected above ground could be blamed on the destruction of Iranian Uranium refinement devices and fissionable material storage areas.
I recall a year or so ago that Clif elicited strong indications of POTUS angst, potentially related to an Iranian/Israeli decision. The pieces of the puzzle seem to be lining-up -- the global economy is in the pooper, the planet is overcrowded, and Saudi Arabia has essentially provided Israel with a big 'green light' to stop Iran with claims of Iranian assassination plots and terror plans against the royal family. Meanwhile, Israel is surrounded by a blooming weed garden of Arab Springs. Netanyahu must quickly show resolve or risk losing all due to perceived and fatal weaknesses.
My fingers are all crossed that this will eventually be defused, but with the current leadership in Iran (religious and secular), I don't hold out much hope.
The timing couldn't be better for the USA: Massive test of the Emergency Action Notification System next week, US Navy out for Pacific Wave 11 drills, and Europe taking far too much space above the fold for the continued comfort of the monied class. Sadly, war fills the bill as a huge distraction and gives the US reason to be out of Iraq, so as not to get steam-rolled by the huge Iranian army as payback. Gives us pieces to move around in theater, too.
Not that it would be all bad...since from an investment standpoint, it would make the pending crash and burn of the global stock markets something which could be blamed on "Them Iranians." Thus, preserving the role of banksters and commodity fraudsters for future mischief.
Oh, and forget I mentioned defense sector ETF's might be something to keep an eye on, OK? Wars are ultimately about money, aren't they? But we'll just keep between us for now.
Yes, the Shape of Things to Come may have been right about November...just called it a year early perhaps...but as outputs from the rickety time machine go, the more lead time we get, the BIGGER the events seem to be, so if this is the "Israeli mistake" in the linguistics, it's likely to be a whopper.
Oh, and Britain's chief rabbi opening the Wednesday US Senate session is purely coincidental, I'm sure.
You might want to scrub your tourism plans for Tehran this weekend, eh?
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