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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread
VTI 335.99-1.1%Dec 12 4:00 PM EST
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To: marc ultra who wrote (6713)11/4/2011 7:39:42 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff2 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) of 10065
 
Hi Marc:

Good post.

Using the 2008-2009 bear market as an example, the ECRI bottoming pattern was as follows according to ECRI interviews I have watched.

First, the recession call was around April, 2008. The tree began to shake and it was a matter of months before Lehman and the rest of the rotten fruit began to fall. So the focus on the rotting fruit is a good focus of this thread. Europe and MF Global come to mind.

1. Long leading indicators bottom first (November, 2008).
2. Weekly leading indicators bottom second (December, 2008).
3. Stock market bottoms third (March, 2009).

ECRI acknowledgment of economic turn via media appearance: Early April, 2009.

Justa



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