The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread

VTI 334.36

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Dec 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: marc ultra who wrote (6713)	11/4/2011 10:06:09 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 10065

the big issues of the time of Asian contagion, Russian default and then Long term Capital were all able to be taken care of or stabilized. Then<->Now Asian Contagion=Possible European Contagion Russian Default=Greek Default (or Italy, Spain, Portugal, France(?)) LTCM=MF Global In the end, these problems seem to be worked out somehow. Fed action is tapped out now except for some marginal moves around the edges. The Fed has a great deal of fire power including the purchase of corporate bonds which you never hear talked about if they so choose. Significant fiscal stimulus is mostly off the table now with the Tea Party influenced House Agreed but it is the stimulus from the Fed that matters most. I don't see this as a normal year 3 of a presidential cycle where you can try to bribe your way to reelection Every sitting President has the ability to and uses their ability to "bribe" their way to re-election. It is why it is so hard to defeat a sitting President. Also I just don't see a lasting viable solution to Europe yet... The ECB which has to be involved Therein lies the lasting solution. The ECB has to start acting more like the Federal Reserve but cannot because of all the countries involved and has to have the ability to start buying EuroZone bonds to help the continent out of its financial mess. For now I'm still expecting a recession and bear in the not too distant future but my conviction is somewhat less and based 3 straight upticks in the WLI and generally improving data I'll lower the probability to 65% now after having lowered it from 87% to 77% last week. 87%->77%->65% (note the trend)...In another month or so, you and I will have the same view on recession risk. MGJ

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