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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 296.20

-0.6%

Dec 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (54543)	11/6/2011 2:38:39 PM
From: Sam	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) of 95587

The guy you are quoting has the market's PE at 19.7. I still haven't been able to see where the people who say this get that number from. If he means by the "market," the S&P500, it is way off. The earnings for the S&P should be around $100, give or take 5% this year, while the index is 1253. The only way you can get a PE of over 19 on that is by assuming a bad recession next year that knocks earnings down by 40%. Not impossible, but it just doesn't look likely right now. And it is being as speculative as the shorts always accuse longs of being when they measure PEs by earnings forecasts 1 or 2 or, in really exuberant markets, 3 years in advance. The data just doesn't support a big move down right now with interest rates and valuations being where they are. JMHO.

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