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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 299.48-4.8%Dec 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (54549)11/6/2011 8:16:15 PM
From: Sam  Read Replies (1) of 95579
 
Thanks for the articles, Don. I was too lazy to do the legwork that you did, preferring to believe that Mr. Market's PE is 12-13 rather than 19-20. I still find it hard to believe that there is that much difference between operating and reported earnings, but... WTFDIK.

That said, Mr. Humayan wrote the following in the August 2009 article you linked:

In my opinion there are 2 factors which will lead to correction and resistance to move to higher levels for the S&P:
  • A very high valuation in the markets as of now based on both operating earnings and reported earnings and
  • A very high 2010 EPS estimate which is bound to dissapoint. When it does, then markets would correct accordingly.
The "very high 2010 EPS estimate" he refers to was for $73.05, which as we now know was exceeded by a wide margin.

Not to be trite or obvious, but--the future is in the future.
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