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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 314.52

-0.6%

Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: robert b furman who wrote (54569)	11/7/2011 8:32:46 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) of 95572

We've had a friendly debate for over a decade if his leading indicators are "more leading" than my favorite tech stocks. I think the answer is no but what we don't know until after the fact if the low (or high) is in for our leading tech stocks but you do get a call for a direction change from his indicators usually close enough to bottoms and tops to have significant value. That is I'd not want to be leveraged long when he's calling for a business cycle slowdown and I'd not want to be net short when he says a business cycle upturn is on the way. What I've done lately is use his indicators as head and tail wind for asset allocation. Right now, I take profits quickly so I have plenty of cash to buy if we go lower. Right now, my stocks are acting much like they did between the 2008 and 2009 lows as well as the 2002 and 2003 lows... higher lows even while WLI is headed lower... hard to explain unless you've followed it a long time and seen all my charts over the years. but it is POSSIBLE in the BEST CASE for ECRI's indicators to match with a Feb bottom in the semi cycle... and the stock prices could be predicting this already... subject to any new exogenous event.

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