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Strategies & Market Trends : Dividend investing for retirement

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To: Bocor who wrote (10337)11/8/2011 7:38:43 AM
From: Bocor  Read Replies (1) of 34328
 
What The Market Is Telling Us About MLP Valuations
seekingalpha.com

Every bull market eventually comes to an end. The catalysts pushing profits, dividends and share prices higher ultimately dissipate. Equity valuations become so high that the expectations built into them become almost impossible to achieve.

Finally, the air goes out of the balloon. Growth slows to a crawl or shifts into reverse. Share prices start to come down slowly. Then, the selloff accelerates as investors lose heart and bail out. Expectations eventually go so low that it’s nearly impossible for companies not to beat them. At this point, the cycle begins anew on the upside.

The current bull market for master limited partnerships (MLPs) eventually will end. Investors’ expectations will ratchet up to levels where almost any news is a disappointment. The massive deficit in energy infrastructure will become a surplus as MLPs overbuild to meet anticipated demand, rather than inking contracts with customers beforehand.

Prospective returns on new projects will fall as capacity becomes cheap, even as capital costs rise and squeeze profits. Distribution growth will slow to a crawl, and some MLPs will slash their payouts. Finally, share prices will head lower. The bull will at last be broken.

Today, however, is not that day.
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