1. Steady drop in volatility
Nope, at least not yet.
2. SPX around 1300 by New Year.
Does not look silly anymore. 1320 would be even better.
3. 1300 might be a reasonable short. Will re-evaluate if we get there.
Same plan as before.
No trading in investment accounts below 1260-1280.
Got lucky. Nice clean 20% rise while almost fully invested.
Increase the holding period in trading accounts to a few days.
A miss. Intraday numbers are still working better. Stick to day trades.
WAG:
Back and forth garbage for a few weeks; 1320 by Christmas.
Breakout to 1300+ will be a bull trap.
The plan:
No chasing, no dip buying. Risk/reward is not good.
Sell the rallies, raise more cash.
Wait for a fat pitch (1000+panic or 1300+excessive optimism confirmed by OEX, OCC, Hulbert, COT, Rydex, smart/dumb spread, and insiders data).
All new buying in investment accounts should concentrate on protection against inflation. Oil, NG, RSX, fertilizers, housing, one more gold/silver miner.
Careful with shorting, don't be a smart ass. 1500 by summer 2012 sounds stupid, but who knows. At some point, there will be monster rotation from bonds into stocks. |
