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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (44745)	11/14/2011 3:18:00 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (2) of 78667

I have done very little buying (except XLS) but have moved some positions around TC- sold. Completely out of mining (I also mentioned I sold Vale before) FLU.VI - successfully swapped high cost shares for lower cost shares. Flughafen Wien has new management in place and they have actually shown good traffic numbers (+~7% in September). The big deal will be get the new terminal into operation without delays or issues. Next years earnings will be down due to startup costs and because they will take the full depreciation expense on the new terminal, while this terminal will only open mid year 2012 but 2013 should look much much better. BK - sold some higher cost shares in my taxable account last week and hope to buy back at the same price or lower after 31 days. Other than that I have eliminated marginal positions in financials like C as well (this time at a profit). For the most part, i have substantially de-risked my portfolio. I continue to believe, that there is substantial risk for a recession and/or a credit event (probably induced by Europe but it could also be trouble in the US) that skews risk reward towards the downside. Some of political developments in Europe are quite positive (Berlusconi's resignation and a new government lead by Monti) but then on the other hand the result of Italy's latest debt auction were very worrisome. Sign of the times - Barrons had an article about Advisers that have gone all ETF. These guys don't even attempt to be stockpickers or mutual fund pickers any more, they try to be in the "right" sectors. One of the revealing reasons they stated is that they stated is that if a stock with bad headlines is in a mutual fund they have picked, they get a lot of calls from customers but they get none if a stock is in an ETF. Never underestimate the power of incentives! It is my opinion that ETF and their rebalancing makes for a lot of weird trading, which I think can lead to exploitable opportunities. I believe that in the end the prevalance of ETF's will make the stock market much more volatile. online.barrons.com

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