Obviously `dead money' for another year until something surfaces from the HIV efforts. Very, very disappointed in the SB509 results. Ed's earlier comments regarding 2011 being a transformative year really suckered me in to buying more stock in anticipation of this groundbreaking medical treatment; regenerating nerves has never been accomplished for DN patients. Comments made by management leading up to the DN announcement all seemed to be inferring positive results (I realize there was an imposed blackout period); I blame only myself for my huge loss.
On the bright side, a ZFN monogenetic focus is what this company needed all along. The longer they screwed around and were distracted with non-ZFN disease states, the more likely someone would eventually come along and crash onto their hallowed HIV IP turf with a disruptive fast-track FDA approved vaccine. Knowing the cost restraints of all governments and health providers, a vaccine would be far more cost effective scenario than a $100K per patient functional ZFN cure; especially if those dependent on recurring drug cocktails can then be quantitatively/financially defined as justifiable by gov't or Big Pharma.
Additionally, there seems to be a notable uptick from their current partnerships in Dow Agro and SIAL. Looks like a record breaking Royalty quarter coming up in 2011. The 2011 financing now looks like a marvelous deal for the company, another secondary is highly unlikely at this stage. All is far from lost with this recent DN set-back.
So, have to believe the damage is done and the bottom is predominantly in place. Though we can go slightly lower from here, the company has adequate cash on hand, proven ZFN technology, a potential new platform in combating disease, a promising pipeline (though at a woefully slow pace; absolutely no sense of urgency), and on the radar screen of every big pharmaceutical company worldwide. At a market cap of < $140M, any number of companies could take SGMO out for literally a balance sheet rounding entry.
Would like to see Ed step aside (fat chance of that with his hand picked directors; he certainly is not CEO material but is one hell of a visionary) and to more aggressively develop early stage partnerships on at least two disease states. This technology will eventually pay off for some company in the field; so far SGMO's chosen `all or nothing' business strategy has been proven to be seriously deficient. Aggressive competition is only a couple years behind and gaining ground rapidly (ie TALENs, HIV vaccines), not sure if SGMO is up to the test. Nonetheless, the recent addition of Bill Ringo to the Board gives me hope that serious competence has arrived and material change is in store. Compensation for company officials is way out of line with results rendered to date, there needs to be a major shake-up.
I will continue to hold on to my stock, feel that the worst is over, and hope my kids get rich off of my decision. HIV news is a year away, I believe it will be different next time around; Drs Cannon and Lazzard (sp) results are more than encouraging. Not a slam dunk by any means, but SGMO still has the IP edge, just wondering if it will ever be commercially deployed. |
