ok - i don't know where to post this, but this thread was suggested. Any comments will be appreciated by this newbie. TIA
PS - apologies for the format margins. It will read better if you copy/paste it into TextEditor, i think
On Friday, 11-nov-2011:10:00AM, using GOOG finance, stock AAPL, its option call lists:
I'm going to 'buy' a 350.00CALLoption for 100*($37.80) that expires Friday 19-nov ... (a completely random choice)
the 'naive' basis for this bet is pessimistic: it bets that AAPL will go down below $350 by Friday.
the 'trader' basis is the hope that i'll be able to sell the option at the 'microsecond' that "BID=" becomes less than $37.80 before Friday.
Details: (OpenInt='#contracts not yet closed") (price=?change=? visual compare 'Vol, OpenInt' gaussians: '+nnn' '+' means going toward when i 'bought'; nnn=['Vol'-'OI'] peaks)
---->ok! - Let's say its done: i 'have' this contract for the 'ASK' price of $3780, the full investment. I will sell at the 'bid' price next week.
Fri 11-nov-2011, 12:01pmEST: "BID=$37.50 ASK=$37.80, Vol=187, OpenInt=2521, Price=39.00 Chng=+3.08 AAPL= $387.05
11-nov-2011, 1:01pmEST: "BID=$37.70 ASK=$38,00, Vol=209, OpenInt=2521, Price=39.00 Chng=+3.08
11-nov-2011, 1:48pmEST: "BID=$35.15 ASK=$35.50, Vol=209, OpenInt=2521, Price=39.00 Chng=+3.08 AAPL= $383.50
11-nov-2011, 2:05pmEST: "BID=$34.40 ASK=$34.70, Vol=209, OpenInt=2521, Price=34.70 Chng= -1.22 AAPL= $384.06
11-nov-2011, 2:30pmEST: "BID=$34.90 ASK=$35.25, Vol=227, OpenInt=2521, +,flatter Price=35.30 Chng= -0.62 AAPL= $383.70
11-nov-2011, 2:50pmEST: "BID=$34.20 ASK=$34.50, Vol=230, OpenInt=2521, Price=34.25 Chng= -1.22 AAPL= $382.60
11-nov-2011, 3:31pmEST: "BID=$33.25 ASK=$33.60, Vol=235, OpenInt=2521, Price=34.25 Chng= -1.67 AAPL= $382.60
11-nov-2011, 4:00pmEST: "BID=$34.30 ASK=$34.60, Vol=235, OpenInt=2521, Price=33.55 Chng= -2.37 AAPL= $384.62
---->ok! - Let's say i'm worried: i could sell this this contract for the 'BID' price of $3430 right now, for: $3780-3430 = - $350, a loss!
Sat 12-nov-2011, 1:40pmEST: "BID=$34.85 ASK=$35.45, Vol=260, OpenInt=2521, Price=34.75 Chng= -1.17 (AAPL= $384.62)
12-nov-2011, 2:36pmEST: "BID=$34.85 ASK=$35.45, Vol=260, OpenInt=2521, Price=34.75 Chng= -1.17 (AAPL= $384.62)
---->ok! - Let's say i'm worried: i could sell this this contract for the 'BID' price of $3485 right now, for: $3780-3485 = - $295, a loss!
Sun 13-nov-2011,12:23pmEST: "BID=$34.85 ASK=$35.45, Vol=260, OpenInt=2521, Price=34.75 Chng= -1.17 (AAPL= $384.62)
---->.... evidently, this Option chain data(Google's) doesn't change over weekends
Mon 14-nov-2011,12:14pmEST: "BID=$30.80 ASK=$31.05, Vol=392, OpenInt=2490, +,flatter Price=31.35 Chng= -3.40 (AAPL= $380.00)
(too busy to check on Tuesday, a positive mkt day. AAPl got over $385, almost to $390 at mkt close)
Wed 16-nov-2011, 4:14pmEST: "BID=$34.70 ASK=$35.10, Vol=119, OpenInt=2233, +,flatter Price=31.35 Chng= -4.49 (AAPL= $384.77)
---->.... mkt: after up on Tues, then down today - a last chance to sell-out of this loser right now? for: $3780-3470 = - $310, a loss
Thu 17-nov-2011, 12:41pmEST: "BID=$29.50 ASK=$30.20, Vol= 79, OpenInt=2216, +,flatter Price=31.45 Chng= -3.41 (AAPL= $375.98)
---->.... wow! mkt way down today - should i sell? make money today?? yes! iwould. for: $3780-2950 = + $830, a profit!
Thu 17-nov-2011, 1:01pmEST: "BID=$26.35 ASK=$26.75, Vol= 101, OpenInt=2216, +,flatter Price=25.65 Chng= -9.21 (AAPL= $376.83)
Thu 17-nov-2011, 1:05pmEST: "BID=$27.35 ASK=$27.60, Vol= 108, OpenInt=2216, +,flatter Price=26.75 Chng= -8.11 (AAPL= $...)
Thu 17-nov-2011, 1:13pmEST: "BID=$26.30 ASK=$27.15, Vol= 125, OpenInt=2216, +,flatter Price=27.00 Chng= -7.86 (AAPL= $377.96)
Thu 17-nov-2011, 2:07pmEST: "BID=$26.30 ASK=$26.65, Vol= 231, OpenInt=2216, +,385/400 Price=28.00 Chng= -6.86 (AAPL= $377.14)
Thu 17-nov-2011, 11:40pmEST: "BID=$28.78 ASK=$29.45, Vol= 374, OpenInt=2216, +,385/400 Price=27.30 Chng= -7.56 (AAPL= $377.41)
---->.... i don't understand-who would be dumb enough to bid $27.40 for my contract on eve of expiration? for: $3780-2878 = + $902, whb bigger profit!
Fri 18-nov-2011, 11:12AMEST: "BID=$28.70 ASK=$29.10, Vol= 27, OpenInt=2141, 380[5]/410[ Price=28.05 Chng= +0.75 (AAPL= $379.25)
---->...'Vol' is perfect Gaussian peak at $380 stddev=$10; 'OpenInt' is 2-peaked: peak at $400 std dev=60; but 30000peak at $440 drops to 3000 at $445 !
Fri 18-nov-2011, 11:35AMEST: "BID=$28.65 ASK=$29.20, Vol= 33, OpenInt=2141, 380[5]/410[ Price=29.45 Chng= +2.15 (AAPL= $378.44)
Fri 18-nov-2011, 3:04PMEST: "BID=$26.30ASK=$26.50, Vol= 203, OpenInt=2141, 380[5]/410[ Price=26.11 Chng= -1.19 (AAPL= $375.54)
Fri 18-nov-2011, 3:13PMEST: "BID=$25.00ASK=$25.20, Vol= 204, OpenInt=2141, 380[5]/410[ Price=25.45 Chng= -1.85 (AAPL= $375.33)
Fri 18-nov-2011, 3:42PMEST: "BID=$25.25ASK=$25.45, Vol= 328, OpenInt=2141, 380[5]/410[ Price=25.26 Chng= -2.04 (AAPL= $375.29)
Fri 18-nov-2011, 3:55PMEST: "BID=$25.15ASK=$25.35, Vol= 348, OpenInt=2141, 380[5]/410[ Price=25.45 Chng= -1.85 (AAPL= $374.98)Fri 18-nov-2011, 4:00PMEST: "BID=$25.05ASK=$25.25, Vol= 389, OpenInt=2141, 380[5]/410[ Price=25.20 Chng= -2.14 (AAPL= $374.94)
Fri 18-nov-2011, 4:30PMEST: "BID=$24.90ASK=$25.20, Vol= 519, OpenInt=2141, 377[5]/410[ Price=24.90 Chng= -2.40 (AAPL= $374.94)
Fri 18-nov-2011, 5:43PMEST: "BID=$24.90ASK=$25.20, Vol= 519, OpenInt=2141, 377[5]/410[ Price=24.90 Chng= -2.40 (AAPL= $374.94)
---->... 1/2 hr before expiration(AAPL=375.25):
there's a cliff at $365 on the "bid/ask"s: at $350=25.00/25.00; at $365=10.05/10.20; at $370=5.10/5.20; at $375 it's ~0.71; 0.02cents above that!
these contracts are out there?, people are madly swapping them?, how? why? "Vol" peak at $380, two peaks of "OpenINT" at $400 and $435/440
---->... 15min before expiration(AAPL=375.25), not much different:
there's a cliff at $365 on the "bid/ask"s: at $350=25.00/25.00; at $365=10.05/10.20; at $370=5.10/5.20; at $375 it's ~0.71; 0.02cents above that!
these contracts are out there, people are madly swapping them, hugest "Vol" peak at $380, two peaks of "OpenINT" at $400 and $435/440
---->... At expiration(AAPL=374.95), not much different:
there's a cliff at $365 on the "bid/ask"s: at $350=25.00/25.25; at $365=10.00/10.15; at $370=5.05/5.15; at $375 it's ~0.35; 0.01cents above that!
'Vol' peak looks more like " x*exp(-x) "
---->... At 30min after expiration(AAPL=374.95), not much different:
---->... At 1hour,43min after expiration(AAPL=374.95), not at all different:
Sat 19-nov-2011, 1:00PMEST: "BID=$24.90ASK=$25.20, Vol= 519, OpenInt=2141, 377[5]/410[ Price=24.90 Chng= -2.40 (AAPL= $374.94)
*Done - expiration
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---->... General questions: how do i actually BUY/SELL the contract (i'm with Schwab - guess i have to ask them?)
what does 'in the money" mean precisely? (i see green digits say for call $535calls, but red digits on both sides of that line?)
why the difference between the 'price' column and bid/ask columns? (i understand 'ASK' > 'BID' tho!)
'Vol'=? 'OpenInt'=? Why does the 'Vol' column change but the 'OpenInt' column stays relatively more fixed as time goes by?
the above questions all refer to what i saw on the Google finance-->Apple-->Options--> View options by expiration (Nov 19, 2011) -Calls pages.
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The next 'call' contracts listed on Google are for 'Dec 17,2011" expiration date. only monthly contracts offered?
Lets rebuy: We 'buy' a 350.00CALLoption for 100*($37.80) that expires Friday 17-dec ... (another completely random choice i'll just pick same strike)
Sun 20-nov-2011 3:17PMEST "BID=$30.60ASK=$30.75, Vol= 442, OpenInt=1969, 377[5]/410[ Price=30.60 Chng= -2.85 (AAPL= $374.94)
---->ok! - Let's say its done: i 'have' this contract for the 'ASK' price of $3075, the full investment. I may sell at the 'bid' price next week(?).
Sun 20-nov-2011 3:31PMEST "BID=$30.60ASK=$30.75, Vol= 442, OpenInt=1969, 377[5]/410[ Price=30.60 Chng= -2.85 (AAPL= $374.94)
Mon 21-nov-201 11:22PMEST "BID=$24.35ASK=$24.40, Vol= 427, OpenInt=2132, 377[5]/410[ Price=24.35 Chng= -6.25 (AAPL= $368.09)
Tue 22-nov-201 2:36PMEST "BID=$29.80ASK=$29.95, Vol= 1704, OpenInt=2411, Price=29.90 Chng= +4.35 (AAPL= $376.43)
-------->... hey! my contract is "in the money! it shows green... what should i do ? anything today?? |
