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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: E_K_S who wrote (45647)	11/23/2011 4:45:14 PM
From: Paul Senior	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 78525

My MHR valuation based on 8500 bopd would be different and much lower. Lower than the current stock price. Couple things going on: Latest production figures I see are 8400boepd. Boepd includes nat gas equivalent barrels. I discount boepd quite a bit. Sometimes in determining if I want to buy an e&p company, I count the value of nat gas as zero. I view gas as being unprofitable for most e&p companies at current price. Jmo. I want oil, or ngl's - not gas. I will use '11 year-end projected production numbers. That'd be 10,000 boepd. I base my valuation off enterprise value. Looks to me as I look at your numbers, it seems to me you are using only shares outstanding (133M ) in your equation, not accounting for debt. -----> I am talking here only about valuation based on flowing barrels of production. Not allowing for value of land -- proven but not producing, probable assets, and possible assets. I once looked at trying to value the midstream business, but decided I didn't understand how. I'll rely on your opinion for this business. I continue to hold my shares.

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