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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

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Dec 3 4:00 PM EST

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To: bart13 who wrote (83605)	11/24/2011 2:50:40 PM
From: Maurice Winn	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 218169

You are right that smoothing "hides" what's going on. The reason to smooth is that the individual little peaks don't matter. It's the overall pattern which causes the effects with which we are concerned. The reason for predicting a smoothed peak rather than the absolute maximum on any particular day is that it doesn't matter what the highest number of sunspots at any particular instant might be. The total heat output is what matters. Sunspots are a symptom of how much heat is being delivered. Rather than count sunspots, measuring heat would be better. But sunspot records go back for centuries while heat measurements do not. Hence my interest in sunspots. To satellites and other electrical systems which might be destroyed by an instantaneous peak of solar explosion, it matters completely what the peak is, and the smoothed number is completely irrelevant. Heat is not like that. The ground, atmosphere and water act as large heat reservoirs. Get it yet? You keep mentioning "but what about the spikes?" Mqurice

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