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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 389.75+0.5%Dec 1 4:00 PM EST
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To: bart13 who wrote (83611)11/25/2011 5:52:44 AM
From: Maurice Winn2 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) of 218131
 
That's good that you chose that analogy. <To be excessively over the top to make the point, if I created a Dow chart back to 1900 and applied 20 year smoothing, the chart would be almost worthless. >

To show the inflationary effects of monetary mania by constant dilution by the producers of US$, a smoothed Dow over 100 years would do a good job of showing that effect. 10 year smoothing would be better than 20 years but 20 years would be not too bad.

The little ups and downs of 1987, 1974, 1999, the 1920s and 1930s would be interesting but irrelevant to the broader point.

The smoothing that is sensible is a function of what's being shown. My point was to show the long cycle of solar output over hundreds of years and the effect on climate. What the sun does tomorrow compared with yesterday is irrelevant.

I don't care if nobody "buys off" on my conclusions. I was right for 3 winters in a row and the peak looks likely to be spot on too and I'm now waiting for 2020 with interest. What other people do or think is up to them. What matters to me is reality, which will arrive in 2020.

I guess a big chill, trending to Little Ice Age or even reglaciation. I will not be buying places subject to ice sheets.

Some people think snow will be an unknown in England - ooops, despite being climate experts, they got that one wrong. Reality ignored their silly theory about CO2 and dumped snow by the gigaton.

Mqurice
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