Roger's 1997 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks

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To: Pancho Villa who wrote (7351)	11/20/1997 5:19:00 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) of 9285

<< I think the COMS short train left a long time ago. be careful with this one. COMS has excellent fundamentals in an industry growing at a 30% clip. >> COMS fundamentals are deteriorating. They are not excellent. There is serious pricing pressure in the RAS/RAC market and NIC market. COMS has been whispering to analysts that they have Asian exposure. << I am worried about you. >> I appreciate your concern but you don't need to worry about me. I know what I'm doing. I made plenty on the last decline to 28 a couple of weeks ago so I can take a hit and still come out ok. << Of course you may scheeze a couple of pints out of it but the upside risk is so high I believe thias is suicidal. >> You have got it totally backwards. The upside risk is minimal for the short-term. There is a dark cloud hanging over COMS and no signs of it being lifted. There have been more than 20 downward revisions in estimates in the last month. There were several today alone. COMS will not climb above 40 until it puts to rest the concerns the street has. I see COMS maybe rising a few points at most and having a downside of 10 points or more. << BTW COMS is by far my largest long position. >> It's my largest short position. << PS: Analysts are just a bunch of followers. Why didn't they make all the cuts when COMS was trading at 50+? This was not a year ago! >> Analyst's are a bunch of followers. They are all starting to follow each other by downgrading COMS and lowering estimates. Unfortunately for longs there are still plenty of analysts who have yet to participate in the downgrading. Also, many analysts were late in downgrading ASND. People (including myself) were thinking "How much more downgrades can there be?" That was when Ascend was 50% off it's highs at 40. It just hit 22 a short while ago almost losing another 50%. COMS can easily make new 52 week lows. COMS dropped to around 28 and change a week ago and snapped back to the 33-34 range. It was grossly oversold and due for a bounce. Even if COMS is to go higher it should have a re-test to the high 20's. Usually stocks with fundamental problems don't recover so quickly. Usually the times you see a V bottom without a re-test are when there was some sort of news that was erroneous or mis-interpreted by the market. When there are fundamental problems with a company (even short-term) usually there needs to be some kind of basing process to shake out the weak holders and traders before moving higher.

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