To: carranza2 who wrote ( 84243)12/7/2011 6:08:05 PM
From: TobagoJack1 Recommendation of 84263 all is taken into account, we wait for rapture. we wait for gold
just in in-tray
From: H
Sent: Thursday, December 8, 2011 2:39 AM
Subject: Re: A question about Euroland
It's not doable. You can deduct Greece from your total btw. - Greece is toast. It now costs $9.95 million to insure $10 m in Greek debt. That kind of speaks for itself. It's a complete wipeout.
Timmy likely proposed to inflate, and very likely (since his concerns seemed allayed) he was told that as soon as the new steps toward 'FU' are taken, there will be inflation.
What else? No-one wants to see this whole enchilada blow up while they're still in office, so every delaying tactic in the book will be tried.
On Wed, Dec 7, 2011 at 2:11 AM, R wrote:
OK, I did some quick and dirty calculations, using data that I found here:
en.wikipedia.org
I am assuming that the originally upon limitations are satisfactory to Merkel, then the short fall would be whatever the actual debt and the deficits minus 60% of GDP and 3% of the budget for each country. The data I have is for 2010.
For the PIIGS, the debt short fall is $1.617 trillion and the budget deficit is $218 billion.
So if we just isolate these 5 countries, all they need is $218 billion to kick the can down the road for now, then they need to try to work off that $1.617 trillion over time. Is that doable?
Looking at France, they are not is great shape. Their debt short fall is $556 billion and budget deficit shortfall is $102 billion. No wonder Sarkozy fought hard against fiscal discipline.
This is a tough one, I am sure glad Geithner is over there getting it all sorted out.
On Tue, Dec 6, 2011 at 6:11 AM, R wrote:
Has anyone seen the calculations?
If Merkel's push to have some type of ironclad formula, restricting the percent of deficit each government is allowed, how much would each country have to cut their budgets by in order to meet this requirement?
Assuming most would have to go with some type of austerity plan immediately, which most likely would involve cutting pensions, entitlements, raising income and VAT, there is no mathematical chance that each country and therefore Europe would not head into recession.
With fiscal stimulus ruled out, how are these countries going to grow their way back out?
So I am wondering where is Merkel going to set the bar at for this fiscal discipline? If the allowed deficit is too high, it is meaningless. If it is too low, would the hardship immediately push the PIIGS over the cliff?
Has anyone quantify this fiscal plan?Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read |
