If you understood the nature of Marxist/Maoist politics, you'd understand that it is a 3 legged stool, with the political wing, the military, and intelligence, making up each leg of the Communist Party.
Right now the political (business/capitalist) leg has primary control for the purpose of developing the country. Should they lose their power because they no longer can "bring home the bacon", the intelligence and military folks will grow in power and their agenda will be implemented.
The military sees an eventual conflict with the US for them to assert national power as inevitable. This isn't much different than what Imperial Japan's military rulers saw as well. China, like Japan, is resource starved and the only way to control them is to use military force/intimidation to subdue surrounding nations.
But I still stand by my belief that Chinese society may rebel against sending their only children off to war, destroying entire family lines in the process. I won't say that I'm 100% sure of this, but I'm holding on to that hope and prayer.
i take it now you are of the opinion that the rmb should rightly drop against the usd?
The Chinese gov't is going to peg it wherever they so desire. The damn thing has been floated on the global markets so it lacks the "stress" that market forces should apply to it.
But you apparently believe that it will decline due to inflation, right?.. That's why your buying Gold and not Yuan, right?
then why would you believe china would hard land?
Overcapacity... Recession in Europe, and possibly followed by the US. On-going stagnation in Japan... China makes a lot of stuff for other nations. So when we stop buying so much of it, it stands to reason the rug will be pulled out from under China's economic "miracle". At least until they convince their own people to stop saving so much instead of spending it.
Hawk |
