Gary, I have been as guilty as anyone in the past, when there were 18-23 M short shares outstanding, of trumpetting the "inevitable" IOM short squeeze. Needless to say, it never came, and until this report, the short interest has slowly decreased as IOM slowly increased in price.
Things to consider:
1) 14M shares is about 4 days - not exactly the number of short days squeezes are made of. They are rare animals.
2) Skeptics of the short squeeze theory point out that IOM is now on NYSE, not the Naz, and it appears the IOM specialist just doesn't do squeezes. She apparently is satisfied with the delights of punishing sellers.
3) The half year long decrease in IOM short interest was recognition that they were wrong about IOM's valuation. Last month, the tide turned. Not by much, to be sure. But I think it would have been better for IOM's chances of reaching 40 in the near term, if the short interest went down. I was expecting it to go down to about 10M.
4) Shorts are pros and can be very patient - just ask anyone on the APM thread. It was the most shorted stock, as a percentage of outstanding shares, on NYSE, and instead of a squeeze, it cratered.
P.S. I traded IOM today, so I'm allowed to post again, by my rules. I'm still waiting/hoping for the options expiry drop to "back up the truck". |
