FSLR 2012 guidance:
module efficiency averaging 12.6% (vs. 11.8% 3Q11)
2GW production; 80% capacity utilization
0.72$/w module manufacturing costs, which would be 0.67$/w if they were running at 100% capacity utilization. 2011 average costs were 0.74$/w, so cost reductions will be unimpressive. They will have to do a lot better, in 2013 and 2014, or they will miss their goals.
0.87$/w BOS cost, down from 0.98$/w in 2011. They have been doing better at reducing BOS costs, and expect to continue to do so.
3.7-4B rev
4$ EPS, a shocking downward revision
over half of sales in N.America, which replaces Europe as main sales area; almost no sales in China
FSLR 3-year plan:
1. specialize in utility-scale complete Systems. This implies ceding the roof-top market to c-Si, especially SPWR.
2. reducing manufacturing costs, to be competitive without subsidies by end-2014. This is the biggest challenge. Their new 2015 goal is 0.50-0.54$/w module cost + 0.70-0.75$/w BOS cost = 1.20-1.29$/w total manufacturing cost. For 2011, costs are 0.74 + 0.98 = 1.72$/w
3. management will focus on achieving this LT plan. This implies less focus on achieving quarterly results.
4. focus on "open, transparent markets"; I think this means mainly the U.S., and the developing world, but probably not China.
Longterm business model:
15-20% gross margin (was 46% in 2010, 54% in 2008)
rev growth 5-10%/y (= much slower growth)
LCOE 0.10-0.14$/wh
no subsidies
files.shareholder.com
seekingalpha.com
The company announced the layoff of a 100 researchers, some 1.5% of its workforce. The team was working on the new copper-indium-gallium-selenide technology, a project which now has been completely abandoned. seekingalpha.com
Predicting less-than-full capacity utilization for the low-cost producer, implies supply will continue to exceed demand, through 2012. The market's response is another huge selloff:
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