re XLS - i don't think i can answer that question. My belief is that the pension liabilties are not carried on balances sheets. If so they would be carried under non-current liabilities and there i can find only 188M$ in post-retirement benefit liability there.
XLS gross pension liabilties are >5B$ and their assets are around 3B$ , for a net liability of ~2B$ (I have this from a Moody's credit rating note). Including these figures would roughly double the size of XLS balance sheet.
My rough estimate for XLS EV (including net pension liabilities) 1.55B$ in stock valuation+0.6B$ in net debt + 2B$ in pension liability. I am not aware of any 6/30 pro forma statement, i have only seen a 12/30/2010 pro forma statement. There is also some big question marks about the assumptions behind the pension liabilities, most importantly the assumed rate of return. I seem to remember that XLS pension plan assumed 8.5% , which seems rather high, given the near zero interest rates. other plan that I have seen assumed ~7.5%, which is still high. Changing the rate of return by one 100BPS does not seem much but has a huge impact on the net liabilities, given the relative size of XLS pension plan.
Other defense contractors have pension liabilities too but XLS clearly stand out at ~40% of revenues net liability (more typical seems to be <20% net liability). This needs to be factored in, when looking at what seems to be cheap shares. in addition, I would expect a 20% across the board reduction in revenues when doing a valuation case, due to defense budget cuts that seem all but inevitable. Enough said, I am moving to a different idea to loose money <g>.
The good news is that selling my shares and ranting seem to have bumped up XLS stock, if only momentarily. |
