Craig,
We may already have seen the bottom for COMS. Though both the 100 day - EOM and the 13 vs. 55-VAMA are still bearish, on Monday the 3-VAMA crossed 22-VAMA to the buy side and has been bullish ever since (the 3 vs. 22-VAMA is quite timely, however, like any short term moving average, whipsaws are not uncommon). The candlestick chart is even more telling than the equivolume. The trading from the 11th through the 14th formed a fry pan bottom, this major bottom reversal was completed with the long white candlestick gapping up on the 17th. The white candle on the 17th was also the first stick the next pattern, the mat-hold, a bullish continuation pattern, which was completed with yesterday's white candle that gapped up above Wednesday's close and closed above Wednesday's high. I agree with your bearish analysis of the short-term fundamentals of COMS, however, I will very likely go long COMS today for a scalp because the upside looks compelling, if COMS can close the window formed on the 10th by closing above 35 and change I may even stay in over the weekend.
Christopher |
