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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude
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To: Doug R who wrote (8098)11/21/1997 8:05:00 AM
From: James L. Fleckenstein  Read Replies (1) of 79450
 
Haven't seen much discussion here about the market in general.

I know Doug said that until the long bond is under 6% we should not expect a rebound in the overall market. BUT, the long bond is only a tad above 6% and a short term turnaround is in full bloom. The question I am interested in opinions about is whether a long term turnaround is underway, ie. IS the worst behind us? I have done my rookie TA homework and I see very bullish signs. Directional movement indicators that average less than 20 day periods indicate a reversal in the down trend. Similar periods for the commodity channel index show values over 100 and relative strength indicators have yet to hit 70, let alone 80, suggesting no overbuying as yet. Short and intermediate term stochastics indicate postive moves. So this seems quite bullish. and perhaps the most negative sign is that the upper Bollinger Band, WHICH HAS BEEN DOWNTRENDING, is about to be met by the uptrending daily index price. Review of the last two years worth of SP shows 2 times when upper bands were penetrated significantly by daily prices, at which time the upward trend CONTINUED. However, Williams%R suggests overbought conditions For my money retirement fund, which has been 5% stocks for the last month, I am thinking its time to up the number to about 15% today and wait to see how this stuff shakes out. Does anybody have any alternative viewpoints? TIA
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