And the Contest Last Place honors go to.... Bulba’s portfolio!
Since becoming the Contest scorekeeper, I’ve avoided posting the identity of the contestant picking the Last Place portfolio for fear of embarrassing him or her. But, being that it’s my 2011 Contest portfolio that won the ignominious title with a -46.39% plunge, I feel doing so is Ok.
(After 60 years of making dumb mistakes playing the market, I’m beyond being embarrassed.)
When I posted my 2011 portfolio, I noted my No. 29 finish in 2010 and declared “the odds of doing better are in my favor.” But I defied the odds by picking a portfolio heavy with RNAi companies, hoping the sector would produce some positive trial results. Instead, the sector produced lawsuits and 2011 was a disaster for the RNAi.
Although my Contest stock picking performance has been terrible the past two years, I actually did pretty well in the 2005-2009 Contests (finishing No. 5, 4, 4, 12, 8). So what happened? Aside from luck, good and bad, I think a strategic shift by Big Pharma had a lot to do with my lousy recent performance. I’ve always been attracted to biotechs with cutting-edge technology and when Big Pharma was eager to buy a piece (or all of) such companies I’d have some big winners. But for the past few years, Big Pharma has been much less eager to pay top dollar for early stage companies, forcing them to raise cash with extremely dilutive stock placements.
Fortunately, I’ve generally been less of a risk-taker with my real life money (in contrast to matrimony which, as some of you know, I leaped into this past October after dating my now wife for a mere 22 years). So, no need to pick me as your 2012 favorite charity. And, of course, the bright side of my last place finish is I really can’t do worse in 2012.
Best wishes for a healthy & prosperous New Year!
Bulba |
