QDOG, Sometime late last month, CNBC ran a two week stories on previous multiple DOW crashes to commemorate "BLACK MONDAY" and look what happen on Monday, October 27, 1997. I'm not saying that alone may have caused the mini-crash, we can argue about ASIA, etc. being the culprit but considering the health of the US Economy, it just may have been a factor, who knows.
Agree, you may not have said doom and gloom directly, but it's very obvious that's where you are coming from. Hey, if that's your position, I respect that. Sometimes, implied suggestions has a far stronger effect on its target audience than saying them directly. I went back to some of your earlier postings (in ramdom order) and
look what I got. Sir, you be the judge. sycamore
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"<< I have been advocate of raising cash since the beginning of the year. I'll probably will be raising cash from here out as short and long term goals are met with ultimate goal of 35-40% cash position. I can't see the US economy staying strong much longer.
Realize, you don't wake up one morning and go, gee we are in the beginning of a recession. That usually isn't realized until a few months into it.
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You are now in some risky waters because of the errosion of wealth that has occur this year and more precisely, this past month or so, in the rest of the worlds markets. This will have an effect here in the US markets. Just as alot of stocks rose wioth others they will fall in concert. Some more than others.
Eventually this will take a toll on US securities on a braod basis, while a select few will still continue that demostrate earnings growth, irregardless.
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You betcha I got some insurance in this market, OEX put's (prefer the 100 over the 500). Whether Monday is a bad day, well you should know early if Asia continues to slide and the European markets follow suit. Interesting employment report Friday. That's the lowest unemployment since '73. There is a scarier bear market than any of the crashes. It was one of drip and drip consecutive down days that finally ended in '74, but the lingering effect was well into the '80's. The precipitous drop in October was only 7% and total form the high of 15%. Hardly the '87 or '29 crashes which were +20% one day events and +30% total decline.
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If you back to the '73-'74 bear market it errode +30% over a long period of time. There wasn't a significant down day. Just everyday. Yes it recovered some, but took years to regain that level. Look at Japan now, here was the darlings just a few years ago, yet it is taking a longtime to regain their high levels.
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It is related to AIPN. IF the worlds markets head into recession, that lessen demand for crude for awhile.
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If you back to the '73-'74 bear market it errode +30% over a long period of time. There wasn't a significant down day. Just everyday. Yes it recovered some, but took years to regain that level.
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Interest rates could very well be on the rise. You'll not get a wake up one morning and the market will say we are now in the first day of a recession. Hell, the last one we were in was over before it was realized we were in it. 4.7% unemployemnt is a problem somewhat that needs to be looked at with a wary eye.
Also the effects of a global market meltdown will affect earnings of alot of companies that have done well so far, because of the rest of the worlds growth. Our economy is depended on the rest of the worlds growth. >>" |
