The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread

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Dec 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (6709)	12/31/2011 7:15:18 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	1 Recommendation Read Replies (4) of 10065

Hi All: On 11/4/2011, I noted the sharp decline of 2011 in the context of a third year presidential decline and posted the following in response to what I thought about the ECRI recession call: "One also has to respect the call in light of the fact that we have not had such a big decline in the stock market in the third year of a presidential cycle since 1939. We had a 14.54% decline from end of 2010 (1257.64) to the market lows of October 2011 (1074.77): See: tradingtheodds.com Note in three out of four of those years where the declines exceeded 10% from end of year (table I), gains for the year were 0 or negative ('47,'39,'31). (Remember, we are talking about a loss from end of year, not the market highs of the following year, and this explains how 1987 is handled in the table)." (You can reference the post I am responding to for the full discussion). Again, this past year of 2011, we saw a fractional negative return in light of the relatively large market decline we had in 2011 -- the third year of a presidential cycle. One must be very careful then going forward not to confuse this period with that of a typical four year cycle. Those counting on an average third year cycle double digit gain by focusing on more recent data were overly optimistic. I do not think we can use 1982-2000 data to analyze this period. That is secular bull market data. And certainly the third year presidential cycle outcome in 2011 does not suggest we are in a secular bull market. Given the 2011 market decline and the 2011 return outcome, 1947, 1939 and 1931 are the third years we should study for clues going forward. Justa

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