let's just leave the bls data at below:
(i) i do not for one fraction of a nano second believe that inflation of living cost has been snail-creep at 1.5% per annum over the past 20 years, terrible year after horrible 12-months; i think 8-12% per annum is a fairer description
(ii) i doubt that the quality of private earnings has been going up, from the wonderful days of internet this and fantastic nights of housing that, and before, the fantabulous 24-hours around-the-world globalization, 20 years and going strong; i believe gentle sloping down is a better take
(iii) i have my doubts that private savings has been growing relative what is needed for retirement down the ever-lengthening road; i reckon folks are generally falling behind, being pulled down, or simply crushed, but only the realization-lag awaits
(iv) gdp growth? incremental debt per gdp growth? savings-funded debt per gdp growth? un-sustainability-induced printathon-monetization of un-savings-funded debt per gdp growth? we shall simply have to see because we have little choice
this is what the 1930s great depression (i) looked like in nominal dollar terms when the dollar was fixed to gold (not adjusted for the one-off devaluation of dollar vs gold)
(v) just because we are not on a Gold Standard capitalized does not mean we cannot use uncapitalized gold standard as a measure, and by that measure, the truth reveals itself in too many ways - this below is what the great depression (ii) looks like, so far
below is a longterm view of a perfect fraud that started in 1913
the truth re how the fraud worked is somewhere on the desk top per below
and the truth is digestible and is good roughage
(vi) we in hong kong use something called 'the hong kong dollar' and it is death-grib pegged to something known as 'the usa dollar'
the hong kong real estate price is supposedly a bubble, but interestingly the nominal price is barely at 1997 level
even as the purchasing power the the dollar did you-know-what. 95% of my holdings were purchased starting in 1999, including my own residence - lucky macro, but i note that even the fantabulous hong kong real estate has not kept pace w/ gold, because of the truth
i see more of the same going forward, except at progressively increased second, third, and fourth derivatives on velocity. |
