On that single issue, the indicators on Dec 15, 19 and 28 had the charts saying "$26.89"... but, it hit that on Dec 30 and the indicators have come off and are pointing higher. When the targets get hit... from that point the charts aren't typically wildly predictive in the short term... they just say the pressure forcing it lower has been removed... for now... and the indicators will tend to "wander" from there, until there is reason for a new trend to develop.
But, that's just the daily charts. The weekly charts are pointing much lower, still, in most of the precious metals stocks... SLV no exception... When the pointers show a long term trend... it can take a long time to be realized... so, the SLV charts had been pointing at a target at the recent highs since 2006... and those targets were hit in April. Now, the three year chart is the most dramatic in its deviations... saying $5... with longer term charts not having had time to factor in the same features... if they will... is a dependency, still.
That leaves the question ( even in trading specific issues that follow market drivers) mostly being one of the drivers and larger market structure issues in PM's and whether, or when, and how. the short positions are going to be resolved... if they are... etc. It the question is one of a long term buy for a hold... the charts are showing its likely stocks like these will test long term resistances... so, in SLV, we're talking $10, $15 and $20 price points...
I think the PM's are TRADERS for now... rather than a trend play... until we see resolution of the ongoing PM market correction... SLV in particular has a HUGE masked short position taken up in trading through the month of April...
My analysis of pinch charts... still has a very high number of miners showing up... but mostly those are in the more lightly traded issues, which have large spreads and can move on very little volume, and are probably dramatically more influenced by issue specific events than larger companies can be... and, for now, I don't want to buy PM stocks that aren't "on sale" enough that the routine in market action will enable trading profits... while waiting for the PM market reversal...
I'd say... for now... focus on trading pinch charts in the PMs... or else focus on what the market shakers and movers are likely to want to see happening on the alternative side of suppression of gold and silver metals and stocks...
I'll start a new list shortly to focus on what I think is likely to matter most there...
If you accept that the markets are being manipulated... then, you have to ask WHY they're being manipulated AS they are, re the timing, etc. ? How, too. But, just a fact, now more than ever, that Presidential election cycles dictate way more than is reasonable... and the deviations from reasonable have only been growing over the last two decades. Expect this cycle to see extremes... expect the systemic risks that exist are going to be made an "all in" trade... all the stops pulled out...
I don't have great resolution on the timing of resolution in the PM trade... maybe the second quarter or later is a reasonable guess, though, as an entering argument... for now... but, my antennae are telling the that the manipulation we're seeing intends to deal a mighty blow to the PM traders now... so, the timing issues could turn the trade in PM's into a rout, if the efforts being made are successful... as they clearly intend to be. I don't see a reversal, yet... rather than a traders market.
Black Swan risks shouldn't be discounted... and, neither should the inevitable impact of QEIII and etc., particularly paying attention to the market risk issues I've highlighted... while noting that declining prices will tend to ensure that the issues in risk to the market structures are going to ensure that they'll NOT be forced to the fore...
So, we're waiting for a turn in the PM trade... while watching the conflicts that exist in the market be wound more and more tightly over time...
Short term... I expect the rally in SLV will stay below $33 or $34 followed by lower lows...
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