Yes, I think they will print, esp. the ECB, but the deleveraging cycle is simply too powerful for any CB (or all of them) to stop.
Good for gold, of course, esp. since part of the tactic will be to try to keep interest rates low.
As Rogoff and Reinhart conclusively show, deleveraging for years inevitably follows the bursting of a credit bubble.
All good for gold. This is really all we need to know from a macro standpoint for the foreseeable future. It is the known/unknown.
The unknown/unknowns are political, i.e., Iran, Arab Spring and their effect on oil, and the political repercussions of deleveraging on the EZone. The unknown/unknowns are why one must have a position in cash, oil and in the best corporate equities one can find.
All my opinion, of course, with which you can get a cup of coffee, provided you also tender $1.25. |
