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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Mr.Gogo who wrote (46108)1/5/2012 10:28:52 PM
From: Spekulatius  Read Replies (1) of 78743
 
Thread - thanks for the input about a COH short - I think that the consensus here is correct and that COH may not be a good short.
>>I don't understand why you would go short at this moment when there are so many companies with low valuations which have a lot higher probability to double and triple. I can understand shorting only if you cannot find bargains.<<

In my case ,the main purpose of shorting is hedging against macro risk. My ideal short has limited upside but is vulnerable to macro shifts. I think that COH somewhat meets these criteria but I think that the upside may be larger since essentially COH so far has shown strong execution and I would have to wait for clearer signals to confirm a potential degradation. I do think that COH expansion, in particular outlets and the fact that their customers is mostly lower middle class women makes it more vulnerable to macro trends than other luxury retailers.But that by itself is not strong enough to warrant a short case at this point.
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