<Well wading through all the posts of the various contests is not an easy job. Some give the top one or two; others mention the percentages of gain without identifying the portfolios. Then you have to hunt around to find the actual portfolios, etc., etc., etc.>
Who said checking out leads for good investments or people who have consistently made $$ by investing by evaluating their history would be easy. Investing is not an easy business. By checking out people's view in the contest threads and on the Biotech Valuation thread you will easily come across several that can either spot a good biotech investment or provide a compelling rationale why another may not be worth the investment. Many here are scientists (molecular biologists, neurobiologists, chemists, pharma or biotech employees), have solid financial backgrounds, or are just damn smart people with a heck of a lot of experience in this bidness. Others who do not have the background can probe with very good questions. I have learned a heck of a lot in following these threads over the past several years, and who knows what and who have less experience or knowledge.
Chris, you asked why the biotech afficionados do not do as well as one or the other biotech index, as compared to their contest portfolio. A major reason is that we all tend to swing for the fences in the contest in my view, and that is simply not a winning strategy. Some do much better in their personal portfolios because they are able to trade in and out of stocks, unlike in the contest. (A good case in point this past year is with the stock INCY. Several of us traded that stock when the NEJM article came out on the rebound in myelofibrosis symptoms when going a drug holiday. Several of us got back into the stock after the market reaction took the stock for 16 and change down to 12, now you can see it is back to the 16 area. Biomaven alerted people to the NEJM article and that helped many of us out. Unfortunately I only bought back in in the 13s with a partial position since I was waiting for it to go lower.)
Chris, we are looking forward to your biotech insight also, so do not be shy in sharing with us your 10-baggers to be and your rationale. Good luck to all of us, since investing does involve some luck as well.
BJ |
