Another issue is that with our withdrawal from Iraq it appears that Iran is emerging as the true victor in that war. This may be a crucial moment to "moderate" their ambitions of becoming a global power.
That's very unclear. Iran is traditionally the power in the region, but they are in a weak position now. Their government is widely hated by the citizens (half of whom are not even Persian, remember; if most of the Persians hate the government, how do you suppose the Arabs, Turkmen, Kurds, etc, feel?). They economy is in tatters. The morale of population is in the basement - fertility levels have absolutely cratered - 7 child per woman 30 years ago, 1 child per woman now. Their chief exports are oil and terrorism. If the US hadn't been so weak in its response (yes, I blame Bush for this -- how can you say you are pursuing an aggressive stance when you let your soldiers be killed cost-free?), Iran would have been checked in Iraq and Afghanistan before this. As it is, the Iraqis remember what Iranian rule is like and they don't want it now. Iran doesn't need nukes because it's strong, but because it's weak. If they try blocking the straights of Hormuz, they will suffer more than us! |
