Familiar noise re oil prices and risks of war with Iran...
But, this time is obviously different, in a number of important ways: including that there clearly has been significant effort made in preparing for it, on both sides. Preparations are apparent, from pipeline capacity that enables moving oil from Saudi Arabia and the UAE to the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, bypassing the Gulf, to the coordination of reserve capacities that appear they'll enable at least 30 days of uninterrupted supply, sufficient to blunt the impact in the time it is likely for any maritime conflict to be resolved. The economic impacts likely, with higher prices sure to come, likely will mean that the intensity of the market preparations intended to blunt the economic impact of any conflict, will prove sufficient in terms of real supply. Then, the military preparations are also obviously of a different nature than we've seen, previously...
reuters.com
ft.com
bloomberg.com
breitbart.com
That the timing issues are also pressing... as Iran closes in on producing weapons that many nations have applied themselves to ensuring will not be allowed to happen, one way or another ?
The requirement is considerably more pressing than it has been in the past, and the practical obstacles to considering it less... than has been true in the past.
Obama, as proven in his action and risk taking re Bin Laden in Pakistan, has shown that he appears to be far more willing than his predecessors to take significant risks, and more willing to accept the inevitable blowback that comes paired with making those decisions, even when they result in success. Otherwise, the policy focus that has been adopted isn't unique to his administration, rather then one shaped by realities... that somehow seem little influenced by what a candidate for political office thinks about those things prior to assuming the office where the reality he faces is forces policy that is significantly independent of his prior opinion.
That many of the tools available to Mr. Obama now are ones that many of his predecessors perhaps could not even imagine... seems unlikely to modify the probability that the decisions that must be made, are likely to be made... based mostly on situational analysis that, at this point, creates its own logic.
Sometimes, the situation that exists in not one amenable to influence, or control, which requires that a failure will occur... and the options available then are only ones that may allow you to influence the mode by which that failure will occur.
We're probably not there yet... but, we're apparently getting closer to that point, rapidly.
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