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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: DMaA who wrote (464520)1/11/2012 8:28:58 AM
From: Big Black Swan4 Recommendations  Read Replies (4) of 793939
 
It all comes down to, are they sane

May not matter. They can be completely sane and there can still be a massive war.

Consider for a moment things from the Iranian regime standpoint. They're encircled by hostile forces. Covert forces are busy blowing up their missile and nuclear installations and assassinating their scientists.Their computers are under attack by worms. New extreme sanctions are destroying their economy and throttling their ability to sell their oil. They're fighting for their survival.

They've seen what happened to Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, and so they can logically believe that the same might happen to them. The can logically and sanely believe that their enemies want to destroy their regime.

What to do? The answer is obvious: get some nukes, fast. Countries with nukes have an insurance policy and have never been attacked, no matter how loony they become (witness North Korea). Nukes are the only way out for them they could logically believe.

So that's what Iran will do IMO. They'll gamble that a military attack on them will be too scary or difficult, or that they can somehow blow it with diplomacy for awhile. Or even if an attack comes it won't be able to take out their nuclear capability. And that once they have nukes they'll be invulnerable and can regain a position of strength.

I'm not saying this strategy is correct for them. But it is rational.
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