Roger's 1997 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks

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To: ted free who wrote (7415)	11/21/1997 1:58:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (1) of 9285

TF RE BFIT Ted,ÿ the big pisture for me is the extreme leverage the slow growth and the low profitability.ÿ yes it may take some time for all the dark scenario I describe to happen.ÿ Also, there is a probability I may be wrong!ÿ However, I am putting my short money where my mouth is.ÿ There is no principal due on the notes but they will continue to have a reduced but very significant debt service negative cash flow.ÿ Yes dilution will make matters even worst! >Looks like further dilution down the road if they need to raise more >cash. Why did they have a stock offering and notes, why not finance it all with stock? It seems to good a short to be true? Well their debt-equity ratio is almost 10 financing with 100 % debt would make it even worst.ÿ The market would not swallow the debt at around 10% under that scenario.ÿ There is always a risk to shorting.ÿ You have to make up your own mind.ÿ Yes many of the shorts out there seem to good to be true. IMO this is a much safer short than AOL and I am also short AOL. Short if you can be patient and can sleep well seeing the stock double before going down.ÿ Also, ddiversify your shorts.ÿ Don{t bet your whole ranch! Pancho PS I am short Yahoo, GTW have beem long in the past. Don{t knoe how much more downside there is to it I sold at 43.

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