i believe it may be the case that any gains
- 80% decision to risk-on or risk-off
- of remaining 20%, 80% is sector selection
- that leaves only 4% of return is decision on individual stock
if so, we are in difficulty because a question arises
what would have kept a zimbabwe-based fund money manager complacent and happily risk-on/off trading the 900000% (yes, nine hundred thousand percentage gain) over a decade, at ever higher amplitude and rising frequency, not get whipped harsh or sawed in half, doing the right moves day after night after day?
the fictional money manager could have discerned the effects of the black hole within the visible macro, discourse w/ his associates, and concluded on some all-of-a-sudden self-evident overarching truths ...
upon such conclusion, decisions must then be made. what decisions?
i do not so much advocate gold as an investment as much as a clarion call of duty.
gold has been the asset class to beat for over a decade, tragic year after sorry year. the dog that kept barking even as other dogs perished on own or were put down.
1999 Dec 31st USD 288/oz
2000 Dec 29th USD 274/oz -6%
2001 Dec 31st USD 279/oz +3%
2002 Dec 31st USD 348/oz +25%
2003 Dec 31st USD 416/oz +20%
2004 Dec 31st USD 438/oz +5%
2005 Dec 30th USD 519/oz +18%
2006 Dec 29th USD 638/oz +24%
2007 Dec 31st USD 833/oz +31%
2008 Dec 31st USD 889/oz +7%
2009 Dec 31st USD 1,095/oz +23%
2010 Dec 31st USD 1,421/oz +30%
2011 Dec 31st USD 1,567/oz +10%
2012 Jan 20th USD 1,666/oz +6%
gold is barking re a black hole that is affecting the visible universe. what is the nature of that black hole? what must we do?
at some sorry point what must the under-funded and tried-everythingelse pension funds do as they had never earned the assumed and required 8-12% annualized return even as the obligated surge of payouts pick up 2nd derivative slope?
when do they tee-up nifty fifty?
raise the titanic that is fannie mae?
'invest' in piigs recovery?
once all else tried, try what other else, and with gushing sincerity?
when they realized the true nature of the black hole (what usd 17k of hkd 138,000 looks like)
for salvation
... and when so
when should we sell into such? so that we may partake afternoon
and morning
however some of us may find gold distasteful, we must address what gold has been trying to say, and we may not choose to buy gold, but we must beat gold.
i find beating gold difficult to do unless one is in some sense denominated in gold.
amen |
