Good point. The election will turn on independent voters in the states below. The numbers show the 2008 percentages going to Obama vs McCain, the 2012 electoral votes and the number of times a state has gone Democrat vs Repibican in the last five Presidential elections.
FL 51-48 29 votes 3R, 2D
NC 50-50 15 votes 4R, 1D
VA 53-46 13 votes 4R, 1D
OH 51-47 18 votes 2R, 3D
IN 50-49 11 votes 4R, 1D
The above states Obama won last time but probably won't next time considering the tight vote spread, voting history and erosion in Obama's support. These states switching Republican in 2012 will get us to 266, shy of winning by 4 votes. We need at least one of the following to swing the election Republican this time:
NH 54-45 4 votes 4D, 1R
IA 54-45 6 votes 4D, 1R
CO 54-45 9 votes 3R, 2D
NM 57-42 5 votes 4D, 1R
NV 55-43 6 votes 3D, 2R
I've excluded WI, MI and PA as they've gone Democrat 5 of the last 5 Presidential elections. I consider those practically unswingable (which is why I'm writing off Santorum). CO and NV are the best bets for Republicans to pick up just looking at the history.
Personally, I think either Gingrich or Romney could beat Obama. Nothings a sure thing. Everyone knows my opinion as to who will be the most conservative in office.
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