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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility

AAPL 283.32

+1.6%

Dec 1 3:59 PM EST

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To: Dr_of_Microcaps who wrote (208576)	1/25/2012 1:48:06 PM
From: Brasco One	Read Replies (1) of 208838

AAPL Let Me Get A Q1…Supersized ?? Blowout Holiday quarter led by iPhone and iPad AAPL’s rev/EPS - $46.3b/$13.87 handily beat Street ests of $38.9b/$10.08 & UBSe $38.5b/$9.90. Strength came from iPhone at 37m (UBSe 30m), iPad at 15.4m (UBSe 12m), & Macs slightly better at 5.2m (UBSe 5.1m). Gross mgn beat (44.7% v. UBSe 40.6%) came 50% from better commodity & other pdt costs, 25% from iPhone mix, & and 25% from 1x items. Guidance was above the street with rev/EPS of $32.5b/$8.50 & Apple expects gross mgn to be down Q/Q due to lower rev leverage, lack of 1x items , & a stronger $. CFO was impressive $17.5b in qtr. ?? Apple firing on all cylinders as 2012 setting up nicely While we expected iPhone to drive 1Q due to a Holiday qtr launch & accelerated distribution, the magnitude of upside is quite impressive. iPhone has legs into Mar qtr as supply/demand remains imbalanced exiting Dec & continued int’l rollouts (i.e. China). iPad strength was encouraging in the face of lower cost competition (i.e. AMZN), and an impending iPad 3 launch in Mar qtr should enable Apple to continue to drive growth and maintain shr in the tablet mkt. These trends along with iPhone 5 in 2H12 & further int’l penetration sets AAPL up nicely for 2012. ?? Raising Estimates Our FY2Q12E increases to $37.5b/$10.95 from $33.7b/$8.54 and FY12E rev/EPS increases to $161.2b/$46.09 from $142.7b/$35.83. ?? Valuation: Maintain Buy Rating and $550 Price Target Our PT is based on ~12x (~9.8x w/ cash) our CY12E EPS of $45.71.

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