Surprise! Surprise! Surprise!
AMD closed up strong on the day after the earnings report. And with a revenue miss!???
AMD blamed Thailand for graphics. I thought that was a lame excuse. Well, right after the call, NVDA used same excuse for a revenue warning. If we believe in what NVDA said, all considered, AMD actually had a good quarter. And I tend to agree.
Going forward, there are a few good things that may push AMD's next quarterly earnings.
a. The supply chain is lean, and inventory is low.
b. Brazos is a smash success, and INTC does not have a killer in sight in that segment.
c. RR indicates strongly that GF 32nm is yielding better on a weekly basis.
d. Trinity with better 32nm yields is going to be a cash machine.
e. RR gets it, by going after mainstream segments in growth markets. China is already #1 in PC sales; India, Brazil, etc.
There are a few X factors.
a. HD 7000 series vs NVDA G700 series.
b. Euro debt bomb
c. IB and Ultrabook positioning. If Ultrabook cannot hit price points of 700 and below, Trinity is going to make a kiling.
d. Windows 8.
I expect, in 2012, AMD will be net cash positive, with about 500m cash flow. With analysts expecting 6.76B revenue in 2012, AMD has a decent shot at 1:1 of price/revenue. That would imply a price at around 10.
INTC is solid. Best 401K pick from last year.
NVDA is an unknown. The make or break thing is going to be Tegra 3, not G700 series, IMHO.
ARMH is fully valued as of now. I just don't see much change. |
