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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 374.96+0.2%Nov 19 4:00 PM EST
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To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (86405)1/26/2012 1:39:07 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (1) of 217901
 
Based on fundamentals, at present prices many NG wells are not profitable so prices must rise or wells will be shut down.

On an energy balance NG is around 30% to 40% cheaper than present price of coal ARA (something must give - coal down NG up to bring the two in balance) and Russia is flushed with all coal, crude oil and NG. Recent deals between the Caspian Basin NG suppliers with Russia and China and the pipeline wars over Turkey and SE Europe raise some question about price manipulation.

Those pipelines are; Nabucco, Blue Stream, South Stream, ITGI, TAP, SEEC etc.,

Add to that the huge LNG deals of SINOPEC in the NW Australia /Timor basin and the new huge discoveries of the East Coast of Africa it makes a very bearish mix. Keep in mind that in northern Siberia NG is just bubbling to the surface in way too many places and Russia has not enough takers for NG, and are working feverishly on a pipeline to NE China over the Amur River

I am not as smart to decipher who is doing what, but my sense is that a price war is going on. Recent BP report anticipated that within short time all this oversupply will be absorbed by Indo China duo as more NG combined cycle power plants will be build.

Therefore I bought some more Gazprom shares as the EU will still buy from Gasprom and NG price will stabilize after enough NG turbines will be installed - it will take about a year, but speculators can act much sooner, as developing the E. Africa fields will take at least a year.

In the meantime writing 6 months covered calls on NG contracts may make sense for the small investor
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